The film, after falling short of weekend expectations in the U.S./Canada box office with $32.1M, experienced a strong Tuesday, earning $3.1M, which is an increase of 87% compared to Monday’s $1.66M. The Tuesday take is quite similar to what Johnson’s Rampage achieved on its first Tuesday – $3.4M – though it’s worth noting that that film surpassed $100M domestically during an extended theatrical run. Red One’s Tuesday earnings surpassed IF’s $2.86M for the same day. On Wednesday, the total was $1.4M, while today is projected to reach $1.2M. The current overseas total for the $200M-$250M movie stands at $55M, with those international markets managed by Warner Bros. Initially, Amazon approved the film as a streaming title before shifting to a theatrical release. Sources within Amazon have indicated that if Red One recoups its worldwide P&A expenses of $100M, it will be considered a success for the shopping and streaming platform.
Red One will undoubtedly encounter challenges this weekend at theatres with the premieres of Universal’s Wicked Part One featuring Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo, alongside Paramount’s Gladiator II directed by Ridley Scott and starring Paul Mescal. Wicked has already hosted fan screenings on Monday and Wednesday. Wicked is projected to earn between $130 million and $150 million during its domestic opening weekend, whereas Gladiator II is anticipated to surpass $60 million. We heard that presales for Wicked two days ago reached an impressive $30M. The expectation is for Red One to decrease by 55% in its second weekend, totalling $14.4 million.
Red One garnered an A- CinemaScore, indicating promising playability even in the face of critical backlash. Holiday films Before Covid, it was possible to achieve a multiple ranging from 3x to 5x based on their box office openings. However, that was a time when they lacked a streaming window to anticipate.
Polar Express, initially considered a failure upon its release in 2004 with a $23.2M opening against a $170M production budget, ultimately achieved an impressive 7x multiple from its domestic debut, amassing a total of $162.7M during its first run, bolstered by an A+ CinemaScore. The movie directed by Robert Zemeckis and featuring Tom Hanks in CGI animation has earned an additional $26.8M in theatrical re-releases, bringing its total gross in the U.S. and Canada to $189.5M. The worldwide earnings from the adaptation of the Chris Van Allsburg children’s book currently stand at $318.3 million, with additional tens of millions generated from the film’s subsequent linear TV and streaming revenues. Upon its release, Polar Express faced criticism from reviewers for its innovative motion capture animation, which they found unsettling. Many are not alarmed decades later.
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